Heads up- upcoming Group III base oil shortage

Tejas1836 · 05-06-2026, 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jefe2000

Ooof, sounds bad. I’d love to read more about this. Can you point me to more info about it?

No

dcstep · 05-06-2026, 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pbonsalb

I am comfortable with my decisions, but for those who are not comfortable deviating from factory specs, leave the car stock and do everything just as the factory says. I owned my 2008 M3 for only 10 years and it had only 110k miles on it when I sold it. But the guy I sold it to sold it a few years later with 130k and it was still doing fine. I did change the rod bearings at 60k, but the extra clearance bearings were not available then so I used BMW but sent them to WPC for treatment first. Took me about 12 hours.

10W60 is really thick for the New England winters I drive through. If I lived in a hot climate, I might think differently.

Everything was hunky-dorry AND replaced the rod bearings???

TboneS54 · 05-07-2026, 12:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pbonsalb

I am comfortable with my decisions, but for those who are not comfortable deviating from factory specs, leave the car stock and do everything just as the factory says. I owned my 2008 M3 for only 10 years and it had only 110k miles on it when I sold it. But the guy I sold it to sold it a few years later with 130k and it was still doing fine. I did change the rod bearings at 60k, but the extra clearance bearings were not available then so I used BMW but sent them to WPC for treatment first. Took me about 12 hours.

10W60 is really thick for the New England winters I drive through. If I lived in a hot climate, I might think differently.

You're right, location matters; I'm in Socal.

Tejas1836 · 05-07-2026, 11:56 AM

https://lydenoil.com/en-us/april-market-briefing

alex2364 · 05-07-2026, 01:22 PM

I just checked the usual oil I get (Pennzoil Platinum Euro Full Synthetic 5W-40) and it's on sale for $5/quart.

https://www.amazon.com/Pennzoil-5500.../dp/B07TRMMQJN

Tejas1836 · 05-11-2026, 07:24 PM

https://twitter.com/CostaKapo/status/20539...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

pbonsalb · 05-11-2026, 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dcstep

Everything was hunky-dorry AND replaced the rod bearings???

I replaced the rod bearings as preventative maintenance. I cannot say whether they would have failed eventually or not. Probably, they were in as good shape as the road bearings on my 2008 E61 535xi that I replaced as preventative maintenance at 150k miles. The N54 is another engine known to wear rod bearings.

pbonsalb · 05-11-2026, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TboneS54

You're right, location matters; I'm in Socal.

In the old days, engine oil specifications often depended on the location temperature range. Now it is one size fits all.

Tejas1836 · 05-11-2026, 10:27 PM

LOL, this won't help
https://twitter.com/tolstoybb/status/20540...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

Tejas1836 · 05-13-2026, 05:15 PM

Message from Highline Warren

pbonsalb · 05-13-2026, 08:06 PM

I bought enough for 2 oil changes for my cars a few weeks ago. Hopefully this will not be like toilet paper during Covid….

jefe2000 · 05-19-2026, 08:57 PM

Now even MotorTrend is picking up on the story:
https://www.motortrend.com/news/your...er-to-schedule

Tejas1836 · 05-19-2026, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jefe2000

Now even MotorTrend is picking up on the story:
https://www.motortrend.com/news/your...er-to-schedule

Toyota has and Nissan (iirc) sent out memos to their dealers about substituting other oils for the recommended specs. Prices on the base oils are skyrocketing and blenders are going on allocations.

zx10guy · 05-19-2026, 10:27 PM

Yup. Started to take things seriously when I saw bulletins being put out there from Toyota, Nissan, Auto Zone, etc.

I'm pretty well stocked up with 0W-20, 5W-30, and 5W-40 (motorcycle) oil. While my 135i is set for a while because I'm doing oil changes with that car based on time, I may put in an order for some LL01 oil as even if there isn't a shortage for it, I'm certain pricing is going to be much higher next year when I need to do an oil change on the 1er.

ETA: Broke down and just ordered an oil change kit for my 1er from FCP. So I have oil coverage for all of my vehicles now.

Tejas1836 · 05-26-2026, 07:56 AM

Auto News

zx10guy · 05-26-2026, 10:33 AM

There's been a run on oil filters too. Saw a video on Youtube from a guy that's been making periodic visits to his local Walmart to check on the situation with motor oil and oil filters. The motor oils weren't bad with some specific types out of stock. But when he shot the video of the oil filter shelves, I was shocked. Almost no filters left.

Compound what I guess is now hoarding of oil filters, the situation with Fram possibly going belly up doesn't help the situation.

Tejas1836 · 05-26-2026, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zx10guy

There's been a run on oil filters too. Saw a video on Youtube from a guy that's been making periodic visits to his local Walmart to check on the situation with motor oil and oil filters. The motor oils weren't bad with some specific types out of stock. But when he shot the video of the oil filter shelves, I was shocked. Almost no filters left.

Compound what I guess is now hoarding of oil filters, the situation with Fram possibly going belly up doesn't help the situation.

Fram's parent company did file for chapter 11 and Fram name is being sold to a PE group. I guess filters are the new TP.

zx10guy · 05-26-2026, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tejas1836

Fram's parent company did file for chapter 11 and Fram name is being sold to a PE group. I guess filters are the new TP.

Okay. I didn't get the news Fram got a buyer. I kind of think both the motor oil and oil filter is the new TP craze.

Tejas1836 · 05-26-2026, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zx10guy

Okay. I didn't get the news Fram got a buyer. I kind of think both the motor oil and oil filter is the new TP craze.

TP was one of manufacturing with plenty of base material supply, PCMO is one of lack of base material. Filters?, should be plenty of base material. But the trickle down from oil may mean that new cars won't be produced if no suitable engine oil.
https://jobbersworld.com/2026/05/26/...ing-challenge/

tracer bullet · 05-26-2026, 01:26 PM

LOL the TP thing was real. I remember having to go to Target when they opened to be able to get any, and then it was just 1 package. Stuck with me I guess, we have all 3 bathrooms pretty full now and it seems to stay that way.

I did pick up supplies from FCP Euro, ordered yesterday, seemed like they were holding around normal, for now.

FrankL · 05-26-2026, 03:13 PM

The inflation from high fuel prices is working it's way through the system and things are going to get worse. In this case oil will not be available.

zx10guy · 05-26-2026, 05:34 PM

Other than the run on oil filters that seems to be happening, most sources seem to agree that the oil shortage would hit 0w-8, 0-w16, and 0w-20 first before the heavier grades start to see supply issues. But all are in agreement that prices for engine oil will go up across the board if it hasn't started already.

05-07-2026, 11:56 AM	#26
Tejas1836 Major 1813 Rep 1,368 Posts Drives: 2023 F95, 2026 M2CS Join Date: Oct 2022 Location: Tejas iTrader: (0)	Understanding the Disconnect Between Oil Market Headlines and Lubricant Costs https://lydenoil.com/en-us/april-market-briefing __________________ Two is One and One is None
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05-07-2026, 01:22 PM	#27
alex2364 Brigadier General 3788 Rep 3,220 Posts Drives: 2020 M4 ZCP / 2023 X3 M40i Join Date: May 2005 Location: Northern VA iTrader: (2) Garage List 2020 BMW M4 [9.69] 2023 BMW X3 M40i [9.75]	I just checked the usual oil I get (Pennzoil Platinum Euro Full Synthetic 5W-40) and it's on sale for $5/quart. https://www.amazon.com/Pennzoil-5500.../dp/B07TRMMQJN
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05-11-2026, 07:24 PM	#28
Tejas1836 Major 1813 Rep 1,368 Posts Drives: 2023 F95, 2026 M2CS Join Date: Oct 2022 Location: Tejas iTrader: (0)	https://twitter.com/CostaKapo/status/20539...rc=twsrc%5Etfw __________________ Two is One and One is None
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05-11-2026, 10:27 PM	#31
Tejas1836 Major 1813 Rep 1,368 Posts Drives: 2023 F95, 2026 M2CS Join Date: Oct 2022 Location: Tejas iTrader: (0)	LOL, this won't help https://twitter.com/tolstoybb/status/20540...rc=twsrc%5Etfw __________________ Two is One and One is None
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05-13-2026, 05:15 PM	#32
Tejas1836 Major 1813 Rep 1,368 Posts Drives: 2023 F95, 2026 M2CS Join Date: Oct 2022 Location: Tejas iTrader: (0)	Message from Highline Warren Attached Images __________________ Two is One and One is None
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05-13-2026, 08:06 PM	#33
pbonsalb Lieutenant General 7679 Rep 13,759 Posts Drives: 18 F90 M5, 99 E36 M3 Turbo Join Date: Feb 2011 Location: New England iTrader: (4)	I bought enough for 2 oil changes for my cars a few weeks ago. Hopefully this will not be like toilet paper during Covid….
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05-19-2026, 08:57 PM	#34
jefe2000 Captain 1455 Rep 883 Posts Drives: 2018 M2 6MT Join Date: Feb 2020 Location: San Francisco Bay Area iTrader: (0) Garage List 2018 BMW M2 [10.00]	Now even MotorTrend is picking up on the story: https://www.motortrend.com/news/your...er-to-schedule
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05-19-2026, 10:27 PM	#36
zx10guy Brigadier General 6303 Rep 3,636 Posts Drives: 2013 135i Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: DC iTrader: (0)	Yup. Started to take things seriously when I saw bulletins being put out there from Toyota, Nissan, Auto Zone, etc. I'm pretty well stocked up with 0W-20, 5W-30, and 5W-40 (motorcycle) oil. While my 135i is set for a while because I'm doing oil changes with that car based on time, I may put in an order for some LL01 oil as even if there isn't a shortage for it, I'm certain pricing is going to be much higher next year when I need to do an oil change on the 1er. ETA: Broke down and just ordered an oil change kit for my 1er from FCP. So I have oil coverage for all of my vehicles now. Last edited by zx10guy; 05-19-2026 at 10:46 PM..
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05-26-2026, 07:56 AM	#37
Tejas1836 Major 1813 Rep 1,368 Posts Drives: 2023 F95, 2026 M2CS Join Date: Oct 2022 Location: Tejas iTrader: (0)	Auto News Attached Images __________________ Two is One and One is None
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05-26-2026, 10:33 AM	#38
zx10guy Brigadier General 6303 Rep 3,636 Posts Drives: 2013 135i Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: DC iTrader: (0)	There's been a run on oil filters too. Saw a video on Youtube from a guy that's been making periodic visits to his local Walmart to check on the situation with motor oil and oil filters. The motor oils weren't bad with some specific types out of stock. But when he shot the video of the oil filter shelves, I was shocked. Almost no filters left. Compound what I guess is now hoarding of oil filters, the situation with Fram possibly going belly up doesn't help the situation.
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05-26-2026, 01:26 PM	#42
tracer bullet Major General 6189 Rep 6,188 Posts Drives: '25 Z4, '15 X3 35i (135i sold) Join Date: May 2011 Location: Saint Paul, MN iTrader: (1)	LOL the TP thing was real. I remember having to go to Target when they opened to be able to get any, and then it was just 1 package. Stuck with me I guess, we have all 3 bathrooms pretty full now and it seems to stay that way. I did pick up supplies from FCP Euro, ordered yesterday, seemed like they were holding around normal, for now.
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05-26-2026, 03:13 PM	#43
FrankL Private First Class 357 Rep 174 Posts Drives: 2018 BMW X5, 2014 320i Join Date: Feb 2026 Location: Vero Beach, FL iTrader: (0)	The inflation from high fuel prices is working it's way through the system and things are going to get worse. In this case oil will not be available.
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05-26-2026, 05:34 PM	#44
zx10guy Brigadier General 6303 Rep 3,636 Posts Drives: 2013 135i Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: DC iTrader: (0)	Other than the run on oil filters that seems to be happening, most sources seem to agree that the oil shortage would hit 0w-8, 0-w16, and 0w-20 first before the heavier grades start to see supply issues. But all are in agreement that prices for engine oil will go up across the board if it hasn't started already.
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