ZPOST
BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read


Go Back   ZPOST > BIMMERPOST Universal Forums > Off-Topic Discussions Board > Politics/Religion
  TireRack

SUPPORT ZPOST BY DOING YOUR TIRERACK SHOPPING FROM THIS BANNER, THANKS!
Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      07-12-2017, 03:14 AM   #45
Brandon818
Second Lieutenant
Brandon818's Avatar
United_States
44
Rep
205
Posts

Drives: 2012 335is, 2018 M5, 2003 M3
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Los angeles

iTrader: (4)

Garage List
2012 BMW 335is  [0.00]
Interesting theory, but they definitely pulled in a ton of cash from model 3 pre orders/
__________________
FBO 335is + Carbon Goodies
Appreciate 1
ORIGIN M.3106.50

      07-12-2017, 03:25 AM   #46
ORIGIN M.
Banned
3107
Rep
9,210
Posts

Drives: ///M
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Northern Hemisphere

iTrader: (0)

Tesla has many things covered.

Home field advantage.
Appreciate 0
      07-12-2017, 09:20 AM   #47
Fundguy1
Major General
Fundguy1's Avatar
1987
Rep
8,340
Posts

Drives: 335 e93
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Orlando, fl

iTrader: (0)

I'm not shorting it yet, but I'm not alone in my concerns. Can Tesla overcome loosing subsidies, higher overall cost including cost of fuel, less convenience, and the general publics comfort level with their ICE vehicles to make them mainstream and break out of the >1% ev market share? We will see. I drove for 8 hours yesterday. Saw 1 ev all day. It's a big bet.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seeking...s-matter-trust
Appreciate 0
      07-12-2017, 10:49 AM   #48
Obioban
Emperor
937
Rep
2,285
Posts

Drives: 05 M3, 04 M3iT , 01 M5, 17 i3
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: West Chester, PA

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2017 BMW i3  [0.00]
2005 BMW M3 Coupe  [0.00]
2004 BMW M3 Wagon  [0.00]
2001 BMW M5  [0.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fundguy1 View Post
I'm not shorting it yet, but I'm not alone in my concerns. Can Tesla overcome loosing subsidies, higher overall cost including cost of fuel, less convenience, and the general publics comfort level with their ICE vehicles to make them mainstream and break out of the >1% ev market share? We will see. I drove for 8 hours yesterday. Saw 1 ev all day. It's a big bet.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seeking...s-matter-trust
I feel like that's a big misconception.

I drive 100 miles/day, every week day. As a result, I go to the gas station 3 times/week. That's a HUGE inconvenience. It's also gross-- it smells bad, I have to touch things other people touch. And that's before even mentioning paying for it.

Beyond that, I sit in traffic in the afternoon for ~20 min each day. It's annoying. My life would be better (more convenient) if I could just put the car in auto pilot and watch youtube.

Not to mention the upcoming convenience being able to get out of your car at the door and sending the car to park itself, and then picking you up later, when you go somewhere without any good parking options.

I'm not one for tech for the sake of tech. I don't plan to ever buy any ICE cars with any of the following:
EPS
Turbos
AWD
automatic trans of any type

Why? Because they make for a worse experience than the cars I have (for what I care about) and offer no compelling values/features that I desire in exchange.

The Tesla I find very tempting. It does/will do a ton of things that I'd actually find useful/beneficial/convenient. It still is sacrificing the driving experience, but modern ICE cars already do that for me either way. Unlike modern ICE cars, it offers a real and compelling benefit in exchange.

The only time I see it being less convenient is on a long road trip. Superchargers go a long way to alleviate that.
Appreciate 0
      07-12-2017, 10:51 AM   #49
Dthltm
Second Lieutenant
69
Rep
291
Posts

Drives: 135i / Deep Sea Blue on Taupe
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Dallas, TX

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fundguy1 View Post
I'm not shorting it yet, but I'm not alone in my concerns. Can Tesla overcome loosing subsidies, higher overall cost including cost of fuel, less convenience, and the general publics comfort level with their ICE vehicles to make them mainstream and break out of the >1% ev market share? We will see. I drove for 8 hours yesterday. Saw 1 ev all day. It's a big bet.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seeking...s-matter-trust
Shorting it is 50/50 from a stock perspective...it will either continue to rise or fall back based on fundamental math finally catching up to it.

That being said I think it is ridiculously stupid to think Tesla won't be around in 10 years. A better argument will be they don't make cars anymore in 10 years. Strategically, they aren't a car company...they are an alternative energy and infrastructure/energy company that uses cars as a conduit to sell batteries. Musk is enough of a visionary and a smart guy to keep them from going belly up. I think they are a game changer and hope the OP saves this thread and comes back and posts in 10 years how he is wrong. I'll do the same if they file chapter 11.
Appreciate 0
      07-12-2017, 11:06 AM   #50
JamesNoBrakes
Lieutenant Colonel
941
Rep
1,850
Posts

Drives: 428i xdrive GC
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Alaska

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fundguy1 View Post
I'm not shorting it yet, but I'm not alone in my concerns. Can Tesla overcome loosing subsidies, higher overall cost including cost of fuel, less convenience, and the general publics comfort level with their ICE vehicles to make them mainstream and break out of the >1% ev market share? We will see. I drove for 8 hours yesterday. Saw 1 ev all day. It's a big bet.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seeking...s-matter-trust
You are in the minority that drives 600 miles every day. For a large amount of the population, they work great. I see multiple ones and models (S, X) in Alaska. Bottom line is they are out there working every day.
Appreciate 0
      07-12-2017, 12:29 PM   #51
yousefnjr
Lieutenant Colonel
1482
Rep
1,926
Posts

Drives: 06 Z4MR, 19 i3S
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Bay Area, CA

iTrader: (2)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Karmic Man View Post
...

To give you a head start battery is not the future (it is at best an intermediate solution)...the future is fusion

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startsw.../#4ca50bcf3bee
Fusion reactor in a passenger car? LOL
Appreciate 0
      07-12-2017, 12:43 PM   #52
fbsm
Lieutenant Colonel
718
Rep
1,701
Posts

Drives: 4wheels
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: backroads

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by yousefnjr View Post
Fusion reactor in a passenger car? LOL
This is what immediately came to mind.....

Appreciate 0
      07-12-2017, 01:03 PM   #53
stevenc
Coming Soon
United_States
117
Rep
943
Posts

Drives: 2015 BMW M4 Alphine White MT
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Houston, TX

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Obioban View Post
What is it you like about them?



Have you ever kept a car that long? Most people don't, at least first owners.

I think the $10,000 is a high estimate (changing daily, but the Tesla powerwall is $3000 and uses teh same battery).

That said, in that period with the tesla you are also not paying for
oil
oil filters
engine air filter
spark plugs
coil packs
cam position sensors
throttle position sensors
diff fluid
trans fluid
belts
tensioners
idlers
valve cover gaskets
oil filter housing gaskets
head gaskets
DI clean outs
turbos
cats
CSBs
guibos
exhaust mounts
as many brake pads/rotors

Or labor on any of the above

Not hard to hit $10,000 of parts/labor in 10 years. Most civics probably experience that.

Telsa power wall uses 1-2 battery packs (400-600 cells per battery pack) while a model S uses up to 15 battery packs.

Cannot compare the cost of the power wall to the cost of a proper Model S battery.
Appreciate 0
      07-12-2017, 01:14 PM   #54
Obioban
Emperor
937
Rep
2,285
Posts

Drives: 05 M3, 04 M3iT , 01 M5, 17 i3
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: West Chester, PA

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2017 BMW i3  [0.00]
2005 BMW M3 Coupe  [0.00]
2004 BMW M3 Wagon  [0.00]
2001 BMW M5  [0.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevenc View Post
Telsa power wall uses 1-2 battery packs (400-600 cells per battery pack) while a model S uses up to 15 battery packs.

Cannot compare the cost of the power wall to the cost of a proper Model S battery.
Pretty sure you'll still come out ahead, even ignoring that the batteries are going to get massively cheaper as time passes.

https://bensullins.com/tesla-model-s...y-replacement/
Attached Images
 
Appreciate 0
      07-12-2017, 01:39 PM   #55
MagnusT
Lieutenant
MagnusT's Avatar
Sweden
313
Rep
473
Posts

Drives: BMW M2
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Stockholm

iTrader: (0)

Interesting read on the subject http://www.thedrive.com/tech/12323/t...racle-isnt-oil
Appreciate 0
      07-12-2017, 02:38 PM   #56
Viffermike
Colonel
Viffermike's Avatar
United_States
1706
Rep
2,923
Posts

Drives: '18 black-n-blue 718 Cayman
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Big D

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dthltm View Post
I think it is ridiculously stupid to think Tesla won't be around in 10 years. A better argument will be they don't make cars anymore in 10 years. Strategically, they aren't a car company...they are an alternative energy and infrastructure/energy company that uses cars as a conduit to sell batteries. Musk is enough of a visionary and a smart guy to keep them from going belly up. I think they are a game changer and hope the OP saves this thread and comes back and posts in 10 years how he is wrong. I'll do the same if they file chapter 11.
This. I've been telling people this since the original Roadster came out nearly 10 years ago, because Musk himself was saying the same thing at the time: Tesla is not a car company. It is an energy company that happens to be using cars as a test bed for technology.

The real question is in bold above. I personally think it will be phasing out user-operable cars at that point, if not sooner, because by then its battery, autonomous, and infrastructure businesses will far, far exceed the cars in revenue -- IF everything goes roughly to plan.

As for Tesla's value: Yes it's overvalued, and the Model 3 is absolutely key to Tesla's long-term viability. But not for the reasons most assume -- it's a mammoth social experiment, really, that is helping fuel (pun intended) what will sustain Tesla into the 2030s: batteries, autonomous vehicles, and a continued privatization of electricity delivery both in the U.S. and outside of it.

Remember: Though Tesla is a U.S.-based company with a focus on the U.S. market, it's vision is global. (Hell: throw Space X in there, and it's potentially Martian!) Just think what a country with large swaths of relatively new utility infrastructure like China could do ... or an overbuilt infrastructure like Japan's -- or a ready-to-be-developed one like India's (if it can ever figure out how to tax its citizenry). Musk is a visionary, yes -- and he's not just eyeing EVs, or just the U.S., or just anything. He's looking 20-40 years down the road, and always has.
__________________
--Life is a journey made more exciting with a fast car.--
--Helmets are for closers.--
<<Current: "Blackened" '18 NBM Porsche 718 Cayman ... Gone (but not forgotten): "Blackened" MG '15 228i M Sport w/aFe filter/scoop, Hertz drivers, P3Cars multigauge, other goodies>>
Appreciate 2
Dthltm69.00
Red Bread3118.50

      07-12-2017, 03:05 PM   #57
Obioban
Emperor
937
Rep
2,285
Posts

Drives: 05 M3, 04 M3iT , 01 M5, 17 i3
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: West Chester, PA

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2017 BMW i3  [0.00]
2005 BMW M3 Coupe  [0.00]
2004 BMW M3 Wagon  [0.00]
2001 BMW M5  [0.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by MagnusT View Post
Another article by the same author, which seems very relevant to this thread:
http://www.thedrive.com/opinion/7081...he-auto-sector
Appreciate 0
      07-12-2017, 10:54 PM   #58
zer0cool
Second Lieutenant
77
Rep
290
Posts

Drives: 2015 Tesla Model S
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Southern US

iTrader: (0)

At the end, if Tesla makes superior cars, it will continue to exist in one form or another. Also there's now tremendous brand value for Tesla. The brand is viewed as cool and prestigious, like Apple and Porsche.

The Model S is superior car compared to a 5 series or even a Panamera. It's also just as cool if not cooler than those cars. I perceive it as such and many others too. As long as enough people and even more have that perception, Tesla will succeed.

I fully expect the Model 3 to be superior to a 3 series.
Appreciate 0
      07-12-2017, 11:50 PM   #59
ny325
Colonel
United_States
459
Rep
2,662
Posts

Drives: Jet Black E90
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Yankee Stadium

iTrader: (0)

I would have to agree with you OP.
Appreciate 0
      07-13-2017, 06:13 PM   #60
CPWINCH
Brigadier General
CPWINCH's Avatar
United_States
397
Rep
4,372
Posts

Drives: Toyota Prius
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Los Angeles

iTrader: (5)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Germanauto View Post
Elon knows there will be competition eventually, which is why he has re-positioned the company toward the energy sector.

Tesla's automotive branch has too large a cult following to go under. I used to work regularly with Tesla and their clients...90% of them are rich nerds obsessed with their gadgets. They are not real car guys. Seriously, what car enthusiast gets excited about autonomous driving? I agree that it has its positive points, but a true car enthusiast will always want to do the driving. Elon is the modern day Steve Jobs to the Tesla cult.

I love cars but I hate driving on the streets and especially in traffic. The amount of time self driving will save for people and the traffic it reduces is invaluable. If you dont understand the point of self drive then you are either to old or just a fool.

Elon Musk makes Steve Jobs seem elemntary and unintelligent

The dude invented a hard drive with a screen, he is not that smart
__________________
Follow my BMW instagram @CARMODIFICATION Let me know you are from bimmerpost and i'll follow back
Appreciate 1
Dthltm69.00

      07-13-2017, 09:58 PM   #61
n55jb4
Lieutenant
United_States
121
Rep
535
Posts

Drives: 328xi 2007 Auto
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: AZ

iTrader: (0)

Musk is not an engineer and he probably knows less science than average college graduate. He is a businessman, he manages company and finances and he even partially involved himself (tho later he got away from that project and sold it to other scam company that is currently pushing it to collect scam money) in a Hyperllop scam (fantasy project that is impossible to create on Earth) in order to allocate some additional investment money that he needs very much right now.
It doesn't matter if Tesla cars won't be produced in 10 years. Not much will care. What bothers me more is that EV is inevitable in one form or the other in future. And that is bad for me because
1. EV kills fun
2. EV changes current hierarchy - it may be not cool to drive Porsche anymore in 10 years, just because your neighbor soccer-mom in her middle tier EV minivan will have faster 1/4 times or 0-60 and so on

This raises a question - was it all in vein? Growing up as a kid to finally own a Porsche, Mersedes, Ferrari (put your favorite brand and model) and here you are on the road where you are considered a slow Ford Fiesta like because average EV Civic will be faster - what will be our new goals then? Does EV essentially destroys a huge automotive based culture?
Autopilot cars are another PITA. Yes they will be very convinient and for many people finally long commute will mean just another free time to rest, read or work inside a self driven car while it's getting to a destination - like you are in a train cabin. However, again, no more fun on roads, no more drifting, donuts, no more moments to accelerate, pass others or get to destination faster if you are in a hurry or emergency. Just boring GPS like drive everyday....... game over. Yes, you can say tracks are for that - but the thing is I've been at the track for that once in 3 years.... so there you have it

This is why I hate EV cars (not specifically Tesla)


Another question is that US market is only a fraction of worlds auto market. I can bet to anyone that outside of western world (NA, EU and AU) there will never be EV infrastructure good enough to support EV cars in foreseeable future - like in next 50 years. Russia, China, India, Brazil (probably that's 90% of territories and population of the world lol) will NEVER EVER (at least for the next 50-100 years) abandon internal combustion engines

As for Tesla itself - with Model 3 for $27k - it's no longer will be percieved as a luxury car maker. Brand will dilute and be like current mid-tier automakers. Porsche for example is perceived as a more prestigious brand currently and the gap will only grow with Tesla introducing Model 3

Another thing to consider is that there will never be feasible (mass produced and profitable) EV airplanes or EV trucks that US infrastructure is built upon

Finally, about fusion - forget about it for next 500 years at least
Appreciate 1
sirdaft11982.00

      07-14-2017, 01:08 PM   #62
Fundguy1
Major General
Fundguy1's Avatar
1987
Rep
8,340
Posts

Drives: 335 e93
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Orlando, fl

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Viffermike View Post
This. I've been telling people this since the original Roadster came out nearly 10 years ago, because Musk himself was saying the same thing at the time: Tesla is not a car company. It is an energy company that happens to be using cars as a test bed for technology.

The real question is in bold above. I personally think it will be phasing out user-operable cars at that point, if not sooner, because by then its battery, autonomous, and infrastructure businesses will far, far exceed the cars in revenue -- IF everything goes roughly to plan.

As for Tesla's value: Yes it's overvalued, and the Model 3 is absolutely key to Tesla's long-term viability. But not for the reasons most assume -- it's a mammoth social experiment, really, that is helping fuel (pun intended) what will sustain Tesla into the 2030s: batteries, autonomous vehicles, and a continued privatization of electricity delivery both in the U.S. and outside of it.

Remember: Though Tesla is a U.S.-based company with a focus on the U.S. market, it's vision is global. (Hell: throw Space X in there, and it's potentially Martian!) Just think what a country with large swaths of relatively new utility infrastructure like China could do ... or an overbuilt infrastructure like Japan's -- or a ready-to-be-developed one like India's (if it can ever figure out how to tax its citizenry). Musk is a visionary, yes -- and he's not just eyeing EVs, or just the U.S., or just anything. He's looking 20-40 years down the road, and always has.
I keep seeing this. I see a laundry list of ideas too. What ideas has he successfully brought to market and made a profit with for tesla? Saying is different than doing. Edison was probably our greatest inventor ever. Buthe only invented things he felt he could profit with and he had huge failures too like backing DC instead of AC current.

Appreciate 0
      07-14-2017, 03:30 PM   #63
GuidoK
#buildnotbought
GuidoK's Avatar
1301
Rep
2,355
Posts

Drives: Z4 3.0i ESS TS2+
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Tinkering in the garage

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by n55jb4 View Post
Musk is not an engineer and he probably knows less science than average college graduate.
Actually Wikipedia says he has (amongst others) a BSc in physics so he's not completely stupid
__________________
Z4 3.0i | ESS TS2+ | Quaife ATB LSD | Brembo/BMW performance BBK front/rear | Schrick FI cams | Schmiedmann headers+cats | Powerflex/strongflex PU bushings | Vibra-technics engine mounts | H&R anti rollbars | KW V3 coilovers | Sachs performance clutch
Appreciate 3
Dackelone9064.00
Dthltm69.00

      07-14-2017, 05:37 PM   #64
sirdaft1
Brigadier General
sirdaft1's Avatar
United_States
1982
Rep
3,322
Posts

Drives: '12 X5 xDrive35i
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Chicago West Burbs

iTrader: (9)

Garage List
The Tesla fanboy presence is strong in this thread. I've read enough threads on this subject and it typically goes as follows:

Tesla Fanboy: **SMUGLY** Tesla and EV's are the future. ICE's and dino fuel are ruining the worlddddd. It's over.

Normal Person: I commend Tesla, everyone loves a real life Tony Stark... but why do we need EV's again?? You realize that we have more oil reserves under the US than anywhere in the world and the US is moving to be a net exporter of our oil/gas? And if you're concerned about the environmental consequences, you understand that natural gas cuts CO2 emissions by 20% vs gasoline? Why aren't you just pushing more towards natural gas usage in vehicles??

TFB: Yah, butttt... autonomous vehicles are the FUTURE.

NP: You're sidestepping now. Vehicle autonomy is not reliant on EV in the least bit. Tesla may be one of the (many) companies leading the charge, but AV can be used in a EV, ICE... hell, I'm sure it could even be engineered to work on a horse and buggy!

TFB: Yahhhh... but the P100X in captain insano mode can crusshhh any new production car in the 1/4 miles.

NP: ....

TFB: Andddd its a 4 door famly car!!!!! See its da futurrre!!!

NP ... I think we're done here.


And while I kid and poke fun at those bullish on Tesla... I think Musk is a fascinating dude. I hope Tesla is successful (I mean that). But please do so by growing your company as a COMPLIMENT to the existing competition vs a REPLACEMENT. He would get far more buy in from us "old timers" (34 years old lol) by doing so.
Appreciate 1
Efthreeoh5697.50

      07-14-2017, 06:00 PM   #65
JamesNoBrakes
Lieutenant Colonel
941
Rep
1,850
Posts

Drives: 428i xdrive GC
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Alaska

iTrader: (0)

The hate is amazing. It's truly the fear of the undiscovered country. The above post makes several incorrect assumptions and references, but it doesn't matter, people are afraid because it's different, because the world is changing. The true genius is that electric doesn't matter what the power station does to make power.
Appreciate 0
      07-14-2017, 09:05 PM   #66
sirdaft1
Brigadier General
sirdaft1's Avatar
United_States
1982
Rep
3,322
Posts

Drives: '12 X5 xDrive35i
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Chicago West Burbs

iTrader: (9)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes View Post
The hate is amazing. It's truly the fear of the undiscovered country. The above post makes several incorrect assumptions and references, but it doesn't matter, people are afraid because it's different, because the world is changing. The true genius is that electric doesn't matter what the power station does to make power.
Please explain.
Appreciate 0
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:30 PM.




zpost
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST