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      08-27-2019, 07:07 AM   #23
Grumpy Old Man
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Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes View Post
That doesn't quite make sense. Congress would tell the DOT to prepare and make rules, they'd call in their experts and engineers, get advisory boards with other experts, and draft rules. Congress usually doesn't make these kind of rules or draft plans except in rare cases and usually when they do, they have to "fix" them for the exact reason you explain, because they aren't experts. They only set the more general policy/rules. The "how to do it" falls on the agencies.

Secondly, you are the only one saying it's going to solve congestion. Obviously it's not, you need more capacity or to have more passengers if you are going to solve congestion. That's a different issue. Safety is the autonomous driving issue. Again, most lawmakers and and agencies are concerned with deaths and injuries. Concerns about congestion usually far pretty far below this. How does congestion lead to phone use? If you are taking stop-and-go traffic, well that probably limits deaths/injuries just by the nature of slow speeds, but that's a heck of a stretch. Does congestion lead to eating food in the car too? Dealing with kids? Talking on the phone? The idea that you aren't going to have any congestion, no stop-n-go, no stop-signs or lights seems pretty far fetched given city density and lack of public transportation. Is that really where the most bang for the buck is? You can only make highways so wide and there will still be choke points and merges that you can't make better. Just look at some of the mega-on-ramp-overpass complexes in Texas. My god, it's just getting out of control in some of those places, almost better to start from scratch.

I disagree that the only way to save lives or have less injuries is to slow speeds. Keeping cars from careening off the road is another way. Keeping cars from hitting other cars, like on-coming traffic, is yet another, keeping them from slamming into a stationary car at 70mph is yet another, and so on. These rely on the autonomous technology. Lowering deaths by lowering speeds to have less injuries and damage in crashes is not the entire principle of this, as you claim. Autonomous cars can be zipping along at 70mph and still be safer, because they won't drift off, hit an on-coming car, run over a motorcycle, etc.
I frankly don't see how AV will become fully implemented as long as government allows the ownership of non AV type vehicles, and pedestrians to use crosswalks etc. I will not buy an AV or and EV for that matter, I enjoy driving and will not give up my cars willingly. Also, automakers are still selling hundreds of thousands of non AV vehicles every year and I don't see that changing anytime soon, so that will definitely slow the transition, even if the government and manufacturers came out with an affordable level 5 AV this year how will they deal with cars that have been sold or manufactured and are sitting in inventory to be sold given some folks will hold onto those cars for 10 years or more.
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      08-27-2019, 08:59 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by Grumpy Old Man View Post
I frankly don't see how AV will become fully implemented as long as government allows the ownership of non AV type vehicles, and pedestrians to use crosswalks etc. I will not buy an AV or and EV for that matter, I enjoy driving and will not give up my cars willingly. Also, automakers are still selling hundreds of thousands of non AV vehicles every year and I don't see that changing anytime soon, so that will definitely slow the transition, even if the government and manufacturers came out with an affordable level 5 AV this year how will they deal with cars that have been sold or manufactured and are sitting in inventory to be sold given some folks will hold onto those cars for 10 years or more.
I for one know I'll get old enough to not be safe on the road, so EVs are a godsend to those of us that want to stay mobile and more self sufficient as we get older, not to mention for our parents to keep them safe. Endangering other people because I want to "hold onto my driving" is probably one of the most selfish things I could do.

Automakers may be selling hundreds of thousands of non AV vehicles, but they are incorporating AV technology at an exponential rate. First it was cruise control, then a long time after that, auto parking, then, adaptive cruise control, now with lane-keeping in an even shorter period of time, and more technologies being incorporated every year.
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      08-27-2019, 01:57 PM   #25
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I think once we got truly level 5 car ownership will be a rare thing, will be far economical to have bunch car running around being utilized all the time like a service instead of owning car and park it 90% of the time...
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      08-27-2019, 02:02 PM   #26
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I think once we got truly level 5 car ownership will be a rare thing, will be far economical to have bunch car running around being utilized all the time like a service instead of owning car and park it 90% of the time...
Exactly!

Ones it reaches level 5 it's almost no need having a car, you can use share services and order the car when needed over app to take you somewhere.
That day will come but not in our lifetime
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      08-27-2019, 02:24 PM   #27
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The lawyers will keep it at a snails pace too. Thousands are injured and/or killed on the roads each day with human drivers - but unless your company is 100% with a self drive - then the lawyers will own you.

I remember last year when the Uber self drive hit someone and they took them offline immediately. Having a coffee shop conversation about it the next day I was surprised how even local people whom I have known for years to be reasonable people were reacting to it. The fact that people are killed each day on the roads did not bother them in the least, but a self driving car was a murder machine when it killed someone who stepped out in front of it.

One woman was stating that she would NEVER get in one. I said "because it killed someone?" and she said "yes".

I then asked her if she had ever flown in a plane....which I knew she did a lot. I could actually see the light bulb going on that she had just stepped into my bear trap. Great lady and I love her to death, but those are the kind of attitudes that grind progress to a halt. If people kill 1,000 driving and cars kill 100 - that is still too many. Classic.
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      08-27-2019, 02:35 PM   #28
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On the surface your argument makes sense but look at it deeply and it is flawed.

The plane argument is basically due to zero choice, one cannot fly the thing themselves and there is no other way to travel vast distances quickly.

The "there's a squillion deaths per second by drivers right now" argument is pointless because everyone is till alive and feels they are either a) better drivers or b) would not make the same mistakes an AV would.

I fall into the latter, i am a very alert driver and see things coming a mile off, i don't trust a machine to do what i can do as well as i can unless the randomness (other drivers) have been taken out of the equation.

If it's all AV i'll get in, until then, on a mixed roads, no fucking way.
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      08-27-2019, 02:50 PM   #29
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Well that's an interesting thought experiment, so human kill 1000, machine kill 100, where the 1000 can be attribute to someone but 100 are completely random (fit whatever distribution you like), ie the more "skilled/alters" driver are now dumb down to the same level as anyone else while the worse driver are better off, as a whole no comparison 100 death is better than 1000 death, but it's random, would you take it?

Ps then I suppose the number matter as well, ie 100 is 10x smaller than 1000 but if that's per million, some might not like it what if it's like 10 or even 1 per million. Ie is there a point where someone would switch side (I don't think 0 should be considered since it will never be possible)
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      08-27-2019, 02:59 PM   #30
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I've basically got two issues with it.

1) A few months ago i was turning left into my driveway but i don't trust anyone else on the road so always keep an eye on my rearview mirror. I just caught a glimpse of someone PASSING ME ON THE LEFT, so if i had turned left they would have absolutely pummeled me.

2) I don't trust that the machines won't be programmed to 'take the least amount of lives" in an emergency. So if i need to make a maneuver that will maim or kill 5 people but will save my kid and I, i'll do it every day, the machine will stop me.

These are all moot points because the technology is fucking MILES away, we are further away now than we were three years ago, it was never gonna happen.
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      08-27-2019, 03:06 PM   #31
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I see this kind moral argument being making all the time, but we generally are not making those judgement, we either evade or break as hard as we can without "active" thinking (otherwise it's definitely too late already).

I understand the desire to hold machine to higher standard but some of those moral questions doesn't really exist. What if it's learning based and just do like human 50% of the time evade 50% of the time stop. Is that "wrong"?

might not be optimal but doing no worse than the best human can do sounds at least semi reasonable

Edit: and before someone ask why bother with Autonomous Driving if it's only as good as human, my answer would be if it's at least the best human can do, BUT all the time would be great improvement already
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      08-28-2019, 05:24 AM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes View Post
I for one know I'll get old enough to not be safe on the road, so EVs are a godsend to those of us that want to stay mobile and more self sufficient as we get older, not to mention for our parents to keep them safe. Endangering other people because I want to "hold onto my driving" is probably one of the most selfish things I could do.

Automakers may be selling hundreds of thousands of non AV vehicles, but they are incorporating AV technology at an exponential rate. First it was cruise control, then a long time after that, auto parking, then, adaptive cruise control, now with lane-keeping in an even shorter period of time, and more technologies being incorporated every year.
True, but the human driver still has the ultimate responsibility to use those capabilities correctly and not cause an accident/death to another person. A change of state to full autonomy has far more ramifications than improvement on cruise control. Children cause distracted driving too...
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