Tesla - no thanks!

[GrussGott]

Aaannnddd ... let's move back to the auto industry and away from "this is what people I don't know think and I'm super confident of it!"

[KRS_SN]

Watched the video and he appeared really p..d off throughout the video. Like an invesor who lost his fortune...
But is there truth in what he says. if so its a revelation.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=G4ZcxeRq...SIkaIECMiOmarE

[ASAP]

There is NO WAY in hell that Tesla has a 33% gm on its vehicles... their recently reported number was 25% which is still sky high but not 33% high.

Unless the higher end Model S's bring the margin down which I don't believe for 1 sec.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by ASAP

There is NO WAY in hell that Tesla has a 33% gm on its vehicles

It's quite possible, certainly for the Model Y, with overall margins at 27% summer 2022:



Of course that time is over now, but I wouldn't be surprised if summer 2022 margins on the MY were 30%+

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by ASAP

There is NO WAY in hell that Tesla has a 33% gm on its vehicles... their recently reported number was 25% which is still sky high but not 33% high

Also, I was curious as I remember seeing that number so I pulled their disclosures and, yup, 33%:

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Also, I was curious as I remember seeing that number so I pulled their disclosures and, yup, 33%:

Interesting - I am looking at the entire P&L reported 9/30/22.

Look at GP over Total Revenue as a %... it comes out to 25%. Perhaps this includes ALL business inclusive of the solar / electric unit etc... which would be surprising given that I would expect that to be the more profitable part of the business.

Either way, either Teslas are quite cheap to build OR far too expensive... seems like this was an easy move on Elon's part.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Onesie

Something is not expensive if people are seeing the value and paying for it.

It’s likely the former. Cheap to build. Which shows in the quality of the product, as the price point is similar to luxury cars without being so.

so then the massive price reduction was just for fun? 😂

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Onesie

I don’t understand your point.

re read your comment

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Onesie

I’m aware of what I said. I understand what I said.
I don’t understand what you said.

ok basic comprehension... u said that people are ok w paying the price the car commands... well not really according to Tesla as there was a violent price reduction

[CarsAndGuitars]

Originally Posted by Onesie

Something is not expensive if people are seeing the value and paying for it.

It’s likely the former. Cheap to build. Which shows in the quality of the product, as the price point is similar to luxury cars without being so.

So then by your definition medicines that wipe out people's assets are not expensive because they are willing to pay for it and see the value in paying astronomical costs to live? Try again.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/expensive

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Onesie

You can try to offend me but that doesn’t make you right…

The car had a price reduction in the US (not in Canada, for example) because the Feds made Tesla lower it by virtue of offering a rebate to folks that buy cars that are less than 55k.

So, Tesla, because it has high margins (due to low cost of production), has leeway to lower prices so customers can benefit from the rebate.
If it hadn’t done so, their cars would be priced out of the market.

E.g.: say you are comparing a Tesla at 60-65 against another brand that sells for 55. People were willing to pay the premium for a Tesla before. This 55 car with a 7.5k rebate is sold for 47.5k.

60-65-47.5 = 12.5~17.5k difference.
Now they’re not competing anymore.

Lower the price to 55, your Tesla is now super competitive and you can offset some of the loss in margin by selling a crapshoot more units. This is very basic.

Sum this up with the fact that Tesla seems to now have a surplus of cars (no longer a huge waiting list) and it’s a perfect scenario for prices to be lowered.

In sum: things are only expensive when people are not willing to pay for them (as I said). People were more than happy to pay the asking price.
When you factor in a government rebate that would essentially make their cars at least 7.5k more expensive, it is no longer the case. Not priced by Tesla. Priced by the government. Then they would be “expensive” (i.e. people would no longer pay for them).

So, to answer your silly attempt at a dig by using a rhetorical question: why did Tesla lower their prices in the US? To make sure their cars didn’t all of a sudden become expensive.

They reduced the price of the model s plaid by $20k and it qualifies for zero fed credits. Seems people will pay what they feel it’s worth, and stagnant product wasn’t moving till the price cut. Free market dictates a products actual value.

The same ^ was true of the x. Consumer sentiment on value has spoken.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Onesie

You can try to offend me but that doesn’t make you right…

The car had a price reduction in the US (not in Canada, for example) because the Feds made Tesla lower it by virtue of offering a rebate to folks that buy cars that are less than 55k.

So, Tesla, because it has high margins (due to low cost of production), has leeway to lower prices so customers can benefit from the rebate.
If it hadn’t done so, their cars would be priced out of the market.

E.g.: say you are comparing a Tesla at 60-65 against another brand that sells for 55. People were willing to pay the premium for a Tesla before. This 55 car with a 7.5k rebate is sold for 47.5k.

60-65-47.5 = 12.5~17.5k difference.
Now they’re not competing anymore.

Lower the price to 55, your Tesla is now super competitive and you can offset some of the loss in margin by selling a crapshoot more units. This is very basic.

Sum this up with the fact that Tesla seems to now have a surplus of cars (no longer a huge waiting list) and it’s a perfect scenario for prices to be lowered.

In sum: things are only expensive when people are not willing to pay for them (as I said). People were more than happy to pay the asking price.
When you factor in a government rebate that would essentially make their cars at least 7.5k more expensive, it is no longer the case. Not priced by Tesla. Priced by the government. Then they would be “expensive” (i.e. people would no longer pay for them).

So, to answer your silly attempt at a dig by using a rhetorical question: why did Tesla lower their prices in the US? To make sure their cars didn’t all of a sudden become expensive.

That's a great spin on the situation but the tax credits on most Teslas expired a long time ago in the USA... so again this is just to keep the cars as cheap as possible for as long as possible because competitor entrants are now getting significantly better at an equal or competitive price... the BMW i4 M50 is 65k lol... i want to find the person that takes a Tesla Model 3 performance over that... Which again just says... people are unwilling to pay those prices for quite some time now and the recent quarter results prove that.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Onesie

Off topic but there’s a dealer close to me selling an i4 M50 for CAD140,000… LOL

There is one next to me for 70K usd and hasn't sold for like 3 months lol... willing to bet one could get a fierce discount on that... again, I am not in the EV market but if I was... holy cow that is a solid car for the price... 523 miles, 280 miles range and is built... well like a BMW.

Also the Kia / Hyundai entrants are getting real solid... VW / AUDI are so so but getting there.

Point is Tesla is gonna get creamed without price adjustments... which they did... almost 2 times (with the new tax credit to the customer).

Now if the GOVT wasn't a bunch of kumquats and standardized the fast chargin across the country, then they would be even in more trouble lol.

[CarsAndGuitars]

Originally Posted by Onesie

Do you need a Tesla to live?

no. Is a several-thousand-dollars-per-month medication expensive?

I'll make it easier..

Is $16 beer at a game expensive?

Is a dozen eggs for over $5 expensive? People were paying $1.50 not long ago, but still buying..

Eggs and beer (like Teslas) are not needed to live.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by CarsAndGuitars

Is $16 beer at a game expensive?

Eggs and beer (like Teslas) are not needed to live.

Au contraire

[M3WC]

Anyone riding Tesla stock since beginning of the year?

Up 33.61% YTD.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by M3WC

Anyone riding Tesla stock since beginning of the year?

Up 33.61% YTD.

Tesla popped off today. Make that 48.26% YTD. Back up over $160...+15.84.

WTF? Looks like they might have overcome all of the FUD from end of last year.

[chad86tsi]

160.27 USD
-116.10 (-42.01%)past year

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

160.27 USD
-116.10 (-42.01%)past year

Yes the auto sector got wrecked last year, legacy automakers like Ford and GM are down over 30% on 1Y chart. Go back a few pages the tombstone for Tesla was being etched. Since Jan 1st Tesla stock has out performed legacy automakers by 4-5x in returns, up nearly 50%. Not a single person in this thread had that happening 15+ pages back. I am honestly amazed at the quick turn around, even with almost the entire mainstream media attacking Elon. They weathered the FUD well, guess the cult is alive and well. With that said I have little hope for auto sector in general in 2023.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by M3WC

Not a single person in this thread had that happening 15+ pages back.

I wouldn't go letting your humble pie cool just yet ...

(1.) There's a bit of trend: Tesla is -42% y/y
April 2022, $TSLA = $380+ vs today = $160



(2.) Here's what I predicted on Seeking Alpha on Jan 10th:



I was off by $30/share but not bad I'd say!

(3.) Let's see your predictions and hold each other to our predictive talents!

I'll note that all predictions are worthless, but the exercise of predicting is invaluable.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

I wouldn't go letting your humble pie cool just yet ...

(1.) There's a bit of trend: Tesla is -42% y/y
April 2022, $TSLA = $380+ vs today = $160

(2.) Here's what I predicted on Seeking Alpha on Jan 10th:



I was off by $30/share but not bad I'd say!

(3.) Let's see your predictions and hold each other to our predictive talents!

I'll note that all predictions are worthless, but the exercise of predicting is invaluable.

Another big day for Tesla stock. Went above your $180 late summer peak price briefly today. Closing at $177, up another 11%.

Tesla now -36% y/y. Right inline with legacy automakers, Ford is -32% y/y.

Don't have any predictions, actually astonished they weathered the extreme FUD by all media outlets.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by M3WC

actually astonished they weathered the extreme FUD by all media outlets.

That's such a sad whine by all the Muskateers:

buh buh Tesla's only worth the top 10 car companies combined! damn MEDIA FUD!

with that, again, I'll point you to the graph and ask you to note the volatility (& trend) in less than 1 year:

April $400! "it's elon!"
May $200 " it's the media FUD!"
Aug $300 "yay for Elon!"
Oct $200 "it's the media FUD!"
Dec $100 "MEDIA FUD!"
Jan $170 "yay for Elon! He beat The Media FUD!"

Sooooo ... can you guess what might happen next??

Media's FUD prediction: extreme $TSLA volatility with a continuing downward trend.