Hmm - so yeah I'm replying to myself - just providing an update.
I have found some articles discussing the 'blend door' and how the blend actuator can fail and is more likely the problem (based on random people on the internet with unrelated cars) ... so I guess I can order a replacement blend door actuator and try replacing that? Looks to only be about $80 on eBay, much cheaper than $3500!
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