|
The basic thesis remains the same: The US is the safest haven for financial assets. Funds will continue to flow to US markets, as they have to the UST for example. Equities, over the long term, will continue to outperform.
If you’re a short-term investor, day trader, rapid trader, etc., then you may want to be short here and there, but if you’re a long-term investor these stock market dips, however severe they turn out to be, are buying opportunities.
My belief is that the Fed should not have raised in December - got caught in the squeeze between currency moves and unwinding QE so had to backtrack last month. May have to do it again before year end essentially for the same reasons. Economy is fundamentally strong with little sign of inflation or recession.
IMO: Biggest risk to the market is stupid fiscal policy like (a) major new taxes to fund Medicare for all, student loan relief, etc. (b) carbon tax to be redistributed (because the redistribution will happen but tax collections will be much less than estimated), or (c) industrial vilification which puts companies and execs in the crosshairs (when they don’t deserve it, for those that do, have at ‘em). Any of these could greatly slow growth or push the US into recession.
|