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      11-06-2010, 09:59 AM   #1
gaeko
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Where do you see the value of a 2007 BMW Z4M Coupe being in 3 years?

I like the idea of purchasing cars that have already took the depreciation hit, driving it for a couple of years, and then selling private party with minimal loss (i'm VERY loose on this because I KNOW it's unpredictable with what the car value will be in the future)

I'm interested to see what your thoughts are on what the potential value for a 2007 (or really any) BMW Z4M Coupe will be in a couple of years.

To start with, after searching around I think a fair expectation would be paying $30k for an '07 with around 30k miles at a dealership and have the CPO warranty included. My first question is: private party or not, is it feasible to find an example significantly less if I waited and searched? I.e. have there been similar examples sold for around $25k?

Next, i'm interested to hear your personal theory on what the value of these cars will be in a couple of years. I only drive 5k miles a year and this would truly be a weekend car since I travel during the work week. This is pretty tough since it was a short run and these cars are relatively unknown to begin with.

I'm interested to hear your thoughts!
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      11-06-2010, 10:03 AM   #2
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Depends on the miles. Low miles (less than 17k) will probably valley at 30k in 3 years.
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      11-06-2010, 10:30 AM   #3
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In 3 years, I expect you'd see slowing depreciation once the market dries up from lease returns. The next 3 years will probably see the largest drop relatively over the next 10 years, since that's about the timeframe that most CPO cars are going out of warranty. Taking a look at the Z3M market for comparison (and it can be easily argued that the Z4M is a better looking, better performing car), I expect well kept examples to maintain their value in the high $20s in the next 5-10 years.
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      11-06-2010, 11:38 AM   #4
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^The S54 Z3MC is the 2nd least-depreciating car in BMW history, after the E30 M3. I expect the M Coupe to stall in the low 20s and hover for years, with high mileage cars dropping to the teens.

The biggest factor in value will be the depreciation curve of the next car seen as an SDC (serious driver's car) by BMW enthusiasts - the 1M. Four years after that model is released, it will start to appear in the 20s, and be marginally more practical and eminently more tunable, and demand will drop for the Z4MC.
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      11-06-2010, 12:25 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by epbrown View Post
^The S54 Z3MC is the 2nd least-depreciating car in BMW history, after the E30 M3. I expect the M Coupe to stall in the low 20s and hover for years, with high mileage cars dropping to the teens.

The biggest factor in value will be the depreciation curve of the next car seen as an SDC (serious driver's car) by BMW enthusiasts - the 1M. Four years after that model is released, it will start to appear in the 20s, and be marginally more practical and eminently more tunable, and demand will drop for the Z4MC.
Even e30 m3 prices were in the tank for few years around 00-03, you could pick up a nice e30 m3 for around $5-9k. The s54 mz3 has never dropped below about $25k average.

The mz4 likely won't be as strong as the s54 mz3 market is due to 3x the numbers, but I don't think you will ever be able to buy a nice one for under about $20k.
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      11-06-2010, 12:51 PM   #6
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Subscribed to this thread.

I have my eyes and mind set on a Z4MC, preferably a 2008 to have most of the weak points resolved, and most reliable MY.

Im dying to get one now, but I have to reduce my debt load first.

If Im able to afford a 2008 in the 2011-2012 timeline, I may be lucky enough to have some base warranty left over. I live in Canada, and I will most likely have one imported from the States, as there are nicer specimens . Most of you guys dont have winters, salt, gravel, and potholes to destroy your cars like we do up here.

Back to thread topic: There are wonderful, decent mileage, non-CPO 2006+2007 Z4MC's on autotrader that are under $30k today. Im thinking that low mileage ones will hover at about this price level for about a year. The price on them will be at their lowest points in locations where you guys get snow, and then rise up again come Spring. Maybe the prices will drop slightly by 2-3k per year. Over here in Canada, Ive been watching this pattern with E46/M3's.

I think the unique S54 engine might slow down the depreciation somewhat...

Last edited by dcaron9999; 11-06-2010 at 06:32 PM..
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      11-06-2010, 01:11 PM   #7
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They produced nearly 40k e46 m3's for the US vs. 1800 z4 M coupes... they are going to depreciate completely differently I wouldn't try to model mz4 depreciation on the e46 m3's history.
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      11-06-2010, 02:34 PM   #8
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I think you're a little low with a CPO '07 for 30K. Non CPO yes.
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      11-06-2010, 03:08 PM   #9
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I hope the prices plumet so I can afford one. I dont car waht the car is valued at I just want one in my price range.....
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      11-06-2010, 03:59 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RBull View Post
I think you're a little low with a CPO '07 for 30K. Non CPO yes.
depends on mileage... I don't think you will find one w/ 30k miles for that

I paid for 30k for my CPO 07 but it was higher miles at 42k when I bought it 6 months ago. That said I still think I got a great deal considering at the same dealership the same exact car (color, options, everything) with 10k less miles and non CPO was selling for $8k more.
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      11-06-2010, 04:29 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RBull View Post
I think you're a little low with a CPO '07 for 30K. Non CPO yes.
Ok...I came to that because I can find dealerships selling CPO'ed '07 MCoupes for $30k...I figured I should be able to find one private party for a couple grand less.

But I have yet to find an example...

Btw i'm test driving an '07 MCoupe pretty soon here...wish me luck?
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      11-06-2010, 05:23 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gaeko View Post
Ok...I came to that because I can find dealerships selling CPO'ed '07 MCoupes for $30k...I figured I should be able to find one private party for a couple grand less.

But I have yet to find an example...

Btw i'm test driving an '07 MCoupe pretty soon here...wish me luck?
When you find one let us know what you paid. There's a tendency around here to advertise asking prices, but be cagey about actual selling prices - and this tends to perpetuate some high price myths...
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      11-06-2010, 05:50 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious View Post
depends on mileage... I don't think you will find one w/ 30k miles for that

I paid for 30k for my CPO 07 but it was higher miles at 42k when I bought it 6 months ago. That said I still think I got a great deal considering at the same dealership the same exact car (color, options, everything) with 10k less miles and non CPO was selling for $8k more.
Very interesting. I bought an 08 with 18000 miles for $29,800 out the door cash at a BMW dealer. Depends on what you put down in reality. I did the entire background check on the car and it was a one owner car. Older guy traded it in. Also helps to be in the right place at the right time. I was going to go with a 2004 Acura NSX but already had an 02 NSX. After test driving the Z4M I passed on the NSX again. Too slow and feels old. Looks nice though. Keep in mind I am an owner of an 02 and 92 NSX.
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      11-06-2010, 06:27 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious View Post
They produced nearly 40k e46 m3's for the US vs. 1800 z4 M coupes... they are going to depreciate completely differently I wouldn't try to model mz4 depreciation on the e46 m3's history.
You have a very good point. They are more in collectible territory, with such a small amount produced (4,000 something around the world, 1,800 in North America). This will definitely have an influence on the speed and depth of their depreciation.
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      11-06-2010, 06:37 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EndlessZ4M View Post
Very interesting. I bought an 08 with 18000 miles for $29,800 out the door cash at a BMW dealer. I did the entire background check on the car and it was a one owner car. Older guy traded it in.
Sir, you are a lucky one. Somebody somewhere must have been sending you positive energy ...
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      11-06-2010, 07:02 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious View Post
Even e30 m3 prices were in the tank for few years around 00-03, you could pick up a nice e30 m3 for around $5-9k. The s54 mz3 has never dropped below about $25k average.
I think we should see the Z3MC start to drop as the Z4MC depreciates - I don't think many people would pay $25k for the older car when the newer ones are close to that. In fact, it seems to me we're seeing Z3MC owners migrate to the Z4 already, as prices fall on the newer one.
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      11-06-2010, 07:11 PM   #17
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by the time I'm done driving mine, it'll be worth $5k

hahaha
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      11-06-2010, 07:40 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by epbrown View Post
I think we should see the Z3MC start to drop as the Z4MC depreciates - I don't think many people would pay $25k for the older car when the newer ones are close to that. In fact, it seems to me we're seeing Z3MC owners migrate to the Z4 already, as prices fall on the newer one.
My brother actually has an mz3 coupe so I tend to hear about their market and if anything the prices are mz3's are holding steady if not going up a bit.

I think the people who were going to make the jump (mz3 -> mz4) would've already done so due to similar prices of the two cars.

Either way the Mz4 is a solid play if you don't want to be killed with depreciation... hell some people bought 2007's brand new for ~$40k and sold them for nearly that 3 years later.
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      11-06-2010, 07:42 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gaeko View Post
Ok...I came to that because I can find dealerships selling CPO'ed '07 MCoupes for $30k...I figured I should be able to find one private party for a couple grand less.

But I have yet to find an example...

Btw i'm test driving an '07 MCoupe pretty soon here...wish me luck?
With any used car, you will generally get what you pay for. A one owner, well maintained car with original paint, low miles, good service records, and no modifications will always be at a premium.
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      11-06-2010, 10:31 PM   #20
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Quote:
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I think the people who were going to make the jump (mz3 -> mz4) would've already done so due to similar prices of the two cars.
I think some are waiting for prices to get closer. On Bimmerforums and Bimmerfest, I've seen rising interest from Z3M owners moving to Z4Ms.
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      11-07-2010, 07:51 AM   #21
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As of 2008, I would say that the Z3M market was pretty steady (I had a friend who sold his then). I haven't followed up with it since then, so I don't know how it is now. In all, I would guesstimate the Z4M market to be in the mid-20's to low-low-30's. The latter range being for the cleanest cars (single owner, well maintained, etc... as dekaliber mentioned). That said, regardless of where prices will be, I don't think people will have problems selling their Z4M's. Yeah, there were more built than Z3M's but they're still a small lot by most standards. Couple that with just being a ///M and you have above average market interest.
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      11-07-2010, 08:00 AM   #22
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I picked up a 07 Z4M coupe with 18k miles with 2 year original warranty remaining + plus CPO for about $31k 10 months ago. It is probably worth about $28k private party now. I expect it to be worth about $20k-$22k in 3 years with 45k miles.
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