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Well... after replacing the LED bulbs with the OEM incandescents, the problem appears to be resolved. Here's what happened:
1. Replaced LED bulbs with OEM incandescents.
2. Went on road trip with car club. Stopped several times along the way.
3. First several stops, after starting the car, no error. However, on first use of the turn signal, two normal blinks and then error + hyper blinking.
4. After 3 stops like this I discovered that I could use the signal for the first two normal blinks and then shut the turn signal off before the hyperblink error. This method also did not trigger the error. Drove like this for 50 miles, only using the turn signal for two blinks to indicate lane changes.
5. After final stop before heading home, I decided to test extended use of turn signal. Two normal blinks, then... more normal blinks! No errors!
I have no idea where the weak link is, but apparently when BMW says don't mess with Texas they mean business. I'm happy I didn't just take the shop guy at his word and go out and buy $300 worth of tail light assembly though. And I still want to find a competent electrician who can replace all (ALL!) the incandescents in the car with LEDs for me, minus the dash warnings.
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